Deliverance Day minus 22. The disenchantment with Labour is so strong that it is inconceivable they can continue in power. Any result that brings a new government will deliver us from the continuation of their failed policies. The election of a Conservative government will not be a solution. They have some dubious policies resulting from their appeal to minor interests as they create a rainbow alliance. This will not be our deliverance. It will be like the Soviet communists liberating Poland from the German nazis in World War 2. It will replace one oppression with a different one. David Cameron’s vision of the ‘big society’ is unlikely to materalise as the Conservatives revert to type. We hope to be proved wrong – in the interest of the future wellbeing of the Country. Debt will be the defining issue.
We need to be delivered from any further policies that are going to plunge the Country in to deeper debt. There is no real agreement on the timing and scale of the debt reduction although the European Commission has set a target for 2014 and Labour says that they will halve it by then. The LibDems are not fixated on targets, being keen to maintain the weak recovery and when that is firmly upwards they would consider debt reduction. This is like stopping the engines on a super-tanker and waiting for it coast to a stop. You do not know how long it will take or how far it will travel. The Conservatives have shifted their position, but would cut the debt earlier.
Remember; no matter who you vote for, the government will still get in.
We have had varying opinions concerning the nature of the recession. We were told that the economy would bounce back in a V shaped graph. When it started to look like no recovery was on the horizon it was more likely that a U shape was happening. Next we were warned that the recovery would falter and result in the double-dip or W shape. There was also the prospectof the square-root recovery or a flat-line recession over a long period of time. Given the policies that are in place we are more likely to have a rough wave shape of peaks and troughs over the next twenty years. We must face up to the absolute limit of finite resources. We can stretch those resources by reducing consumption but the global economy is not geared up for that. All our main parties are intent on want-demand consumer driven economics. This is not sustainable.
No doubt the sense of optimism will be palpable after Election Day with a new government taking a changed direction, just as it was in 1997. Once the hard decisions are taken we will all be deflated. And where to after that?