Do you fancy a bet on the second Irish Lisbon Treaty referendum? It would be a straight single bet on the result – either yes or no – a 50:50 situation. In last year’s referendum the result was 46.6:53.4 in favour of the No campaign. With Fianna Fail in disarray and leading the most unpopular government in Irish history the second vote should deliver a similar result. Simples!
Except, Paddy Power the bookmakers is offering odds of 1/25 on a Yes result and 8/1 on a No result. That means if you place a £10 bet on a Yes result you could win £0.40. Place a £10 bet on a No result and you could win £80.00. That seems pretty emphatic and the opinion polls, as publicised by the mainstream media and RTE, indicate a final vote of 59% for the Yes camp and 41 % for the No camp. These polls also show that the No vote is growing. A poll earlier in the month had 66:33 in favour of a Yes result.
However, the media is not reporting the result of an opinion poll conducted by Gael Poll that shows the exact reverse with 59% saying they will vote No. Coir reports that its door-step canvassers are experiencing a similar reaction as the voters are overcoming the fear factor engendered by the Yes campaigns. A Coir spokesman said, “Our experience is telling us that a No vote is not only possible, but likely. We’ve seen our volunteers double their efforts in the past fortnight and the canvass is turning don’t knows into solid No voters. But we won’t be resting until close of business on October 2nd. That’s the poll that counts.”
Before that becomes common knowledge, it might be profitable and worth a visit to your local Paddy Power establishment to take a punt on a No result.